Executive Summary
Entering 2026, the freight market looks much like it did in the back half of 2025: oversupplied capacity, weak overall demand, modest forward rate inflation, and routing guides intact. The Q4 2025 forecast called for van spot rates to increase +5-6% YoY by Q4 2026 and contract rates +7-8%. As of early January, that view holds. December 2025 data did not produce a meaningful surprise in either direction.
The story to watch in 2026 is on the supply side. Federal regulatory enforcement is tightening (CDL verification, English proficiency, FMCSA compliance), 2027 emissions regulations are pulling pre-buy demand into 2026 equipment orders, and three years of below-cost rates have left the carrier base less resilient than headline capacity suggests. Today's oversupply could compress faster than current forecasts assume if demand surprises to the upside.
2025 Retrospective
Manufacturing contracted six consecutive months. Tariffs created a meaningful headwind to industrial investment. Mid-2025 saw a brief recovery before flipping back into contraction. Manufacturing-dependent freight demand was soft throughout.
Imports moderated post-2024 front-loading. The pre-tariff inventory rush that defined late 2024 unwound through 2025. Container volumes through major U.S. gateways were down materially YoY, though port-area freight stayed reasonably busy on the de-stocking that followed.
Carriers stayed resilient despite below-cost rates. Three years of margin compression. Carriers continued to operate by deferring maintenance, holding equipment, and absorbing losses. Industry exits accelerated but did not collapse the supply curve.
Routing guides held. Contract carriers continued to honor tendered freight at high acceptance rates. The spot-contract gap remained wide. Spot stayed well below contract through year-end.
Diesel eased into year-end. National average ended 2025 at $3.500/gal (week ending 12/29/25), down from the mid-$3.60s at start of December. Crude held in the high $60s to mid $70s for most of the year. Fuel was a non-event for freight programs.
Federal Regulatory Changes Coming in 2026
Three regulatory shifts are queued for 2026 implementation that will tighten supply more than headline capacity numbers suggest:
CDL verification audits. FMCSA is increasing enforcement on commercial driver's license validity, with audits and roadside checks expected to identify licensing gaps that pull drivers off the road. Estimates vary, but compliance-driven exits could remove a meaningful share of marginally-compliant capacity.
English proficiency enforcement. Federal rules require commercial drivers to demonstrate sufficient English proficiency for safety communication. Tighter enforcement in 2026 will push out drivers who cannot pass roadside checks.
FMCSA compliance crackdowns. Hours-of-service violations, drug-and-alcohol clearinghouse enforcement, and CSA score-based interventions are all pacing higher than 2025. The cumulative effect: capacity that exists on paper but does not always make it to dispatch.
2027 Emissions Pre-Buy Begins
EPA's 2027 heavy-duty truck emissions standards take effect with the 2027 model year. Pre-2027 trucks will become harder to source as model year 2026 production ramps and dealers prioritize 2027-compliant builds. Carriers buying capacity for 2026-2027 are beginning to pre-order, with lead times already extending.
For shippers, this means: by mid-2026, the supply of new tractors entering the market may slow as carriers wait for 2027 production cycles. Aging fleet pressure compounds. Equipment availability and cost both move against carriers, which over time moves against shipper rates.
Risk Factors for 2026
- Manufacturing rebound. If tariff frictions ease or domestic reshoring accelerates, manufacturing freight volumes recover faster than forecast.
- Compliance-driven supply exits. If CDL/English/FMCSA enforcement tightens supply faster than expected.
- Severe weather catalyst. Q1 winter weather always carries disruption risk. Concentrated regional events can tighten capacity quickly.
- Geopolitical fuel shock. Approximately 20% of global oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption would push diesel and FSC sharply higher.
- Demand weakness deepens. Housing remains a drag. Consumer or manufacturing softening would pull volumes back further.
- Recession risk. Inflation and rate effects still working through the economy.
- Capacity stickier than expected. If carriers continue absorbing losses, supply curve stays flatter than forecast.
- Technology dampens volatility. API pricing and AI carrier matching introduce competition during disruption windows.
FreightPlus Position
Q1 is the right window for RFP and bid prep. Capacity is oversupplied, carrier hunger is high, and contract pricing is at the favorable end of the cycle. Mini-bids and full RFPs run in Q1 will price into the loosest market of the year.
Lock multi-year terms where possible. If a current carrier is performing well at competitive rates, longer commitments make sense before the supply-side regulatory and equipment dynamics tighten the market.
Build the carrier bench. Even in oversupplied markets, primary carriers can fail. Q1 is the time to onboard backup carriers at favorable rates, not Q3 when capacity has tightened.
Watch tender rejection rates as the early indicator. If contract carriers begin rejecting tenders at higher rates than baseline, the supply-side compression is starting earlier than current forecasts assume.
Bottom Line
2026 opens steady. The market enters the year much as it left 2025: oversupplied, soft demand, stable routing guides, modest forward rate inflation. The Q4 2025 forecast holds.
The story to watch in 2026 is supply. Federal regulatory enforcement, 2027 emissions pre-buy, and three years of carrier margin compression are all conspiring to tighten the supply curve through the year. Q1 is the window to capture favorable contract terms before that tightening shows up at the rate level.