Executive Summary
The May close brought a modest diesel reprieve, with the national average declining $0.173/gallon week-over-week to $5.350 (EIA week ending 06/01/2026). The cost burden remains structurally elevated: at $0.70/mile TL FSC (FreightPlus FSC Schedule), shippers are absorbing $150/load more than the pre-blockade baseline over a standard 600-mile lane. EIA's April 7, 2026 STEO projects a full-year 2026 diesel average of $4.80/gallon with Q2 averaging $5.61/gallon, a $1.30/gallon upward revision from the $3.50/gallon projection published in November 2025. Fuel is not the story anymore; it is the floor.
Three regulatory forces are simultaneously reshaping the supply side. The May 12-14 CVSA International Roadcheck, which concentrated inspectors on ELD tampering, falsification, and cargo securement, removed non-compliant operators through out-of-service orders and follow-on compliance reviews. FMCSA's non-domiciled CDL final rule, effective March 16, 2026, restricts renewal eligibility for up to 97% of approximately 200,000 non-citizen CDL holders nationwide (FMCSA non-domiciled CDL final rule, March 2026). SONAR Carrier Net Revocations are running 31% above year-ago levels through H1 2026 (FreightWaves SONAR), confirming that exits are outpacing entries.
The Supreme Court closed the last major legal ambiguity in freight brokerage on May 14, delivering a 9-0 ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II (No. 24-1238) that allows state negligent-hiring claims against freight brokers to proceed nationwide, settling a four-circuit split. The ruling accelerates a shakeout already underway: brokers with documented, defensible carrier vetting programs will consolidate volume as the under-resourced segment retreats. Demand is moving in the other direction, with ISM Manufacturing PMI reaching 54.0% in May (highest since May 2022, ISM June 2026 release), ATA Tonnage up 2.4% to an index of 115.4 (ATA May 2026), and the spot-to-contract gap narrowing to its tightest level since April 2022 (DAT/AJOT, June 2026). The rate floor is not a forecast; it is already visible in the lane data.
Diesel and Fuel Surcharges
U.S. on-highway diesel closed May at $5.350/gallon (EIA week ending 06/01/2026), declining $0.173/gallon from the prior week, but remaining $1.453/gallon above the pre-Strait of Hormuz blockade baseline of $3.897/gallon (EIA week ending 03/02/2026). The 8-week trajectory shows diesel peaked at $5.640/gallon (EIA week ending 05/04/2026) and has eased modestly since, consistent with Fitch's projection of elevated oil prices through July followed by relief if the Strait reopens as forecast. EIA's April 7, 2026 STEO projects a 2026 annual average of $4.80/gallon with Q2 averaging $5.61/gallon, a sharp revision from the $3.50/gallon projection in the November 2025 STEO. The IEA described the Hormuz supply disruption as the largest to oil markets since the 1970s oil crises (IEA April 2026 Oil Market Report).
Weekly U.S. on-highway diesel on a fitted $5.30 to $5.70 scale (it moved within a roughly 5% band): a dip in late April, a spike to the $5.640 peak, then a steady decline to $5.350.
Source: U.S. EIA Weekly Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices. National average, all formulations.
The FreightPlus TL FSC schedule resets weekly to the EIA national diesel average. At $5.350/gallon diesel, the TL FSC is $0.70/mile (FreightPlus FSC Schedule). The IMDL FSC stands at 41% of linehaul (FreightPlus FSC Schedule). For reference, the pre-blockade reading of $3.897/gallon (week ending 03/02/2026) supported a $0.45/mile TL FSC. Carriers absorbing elevated fuel costs while simultaneously navigating compliance cost pressure across ELD certification, CDL enforcement, and insurance hardening are experiencing a cumulative operating cost increase on multiple fronts. Shippers are absorbing higher fuel costs directly through the FSC passthrough.
Baseline: $3.897/gal (EIA week ending 03/02/2026, last reading before the Strait of Hormuz blockade), TL FSC $0.45/mi. Impact column shows added per-load fuel cost vs. that baseline over a standardized 600-mile load (FreightPlus customer YTD average distance).
| Week Ending | Diesel ($/gal) | TL FSC ($/mi) | Delta vs. Baseline | Impact / 600-mi Load |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | $5.608 | $0.74 | +0.29 | +$174.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | $5.403 | $0.71 | +0.26 | +$156.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | $5.351 | $0.70 | +0.25 | +$150.00 |
| 2026-05-04 | $5.640 | $0.75 | +0.30 | +$180.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | $5.639 | $0.74 | +0.29 | +$174.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | $5.596 | $0.74 | +0.29 | +$174.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | $5.523 | $0.73 | +0.28 | +$168.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | $5.350 | $0.70 | +0.25 | +$150.00 |
Every load moving over a standard 600-mile FreightPlus-network lane has absorbed $150 to $180 in added per-load fuel cost versus the pre-blockade baseline since the blockade took effect. The peak impact of $180/load was recorded during the weeks of May 4 and May 11 (EIA $5.640/gal and $5.639/gal respectively). The most recent week shows $150/load added cost. Diesel relief from a Strait reopening, projected by Fitch for end of July assuming a 5-month closure, would reduce but not eliminate the gap: Fitch projects Brent at $87/bbl average for the full year 2026 (Fitch, June 2026), implying diesel remaining elevated through Q3 even under the base-case scenario.
Rate Forecast: Then vs. Now
The Strait of Hormuz blockade triggered the most significant mid-year energy forecast revision in recent memory. The revisions below reflect material upgrades from major institutional forecasters published between November 2025 and June 2026.
| Metric | Prior Forecast | Current Forecast | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIA 2026 diesel annual avg | $3.50/gal EIA STEO, Nov 2025 | $4.80/gal EIA STEO, Apr 7, 2026 | ▲ Higher |
| EIA Q2 2026 diesel avg | $3.50/gal | $5.61/gal EIA STEO, Apr 7, 2026 | ▲ Much Higher |
| Brent crude 2026 avg (BofA) | $61/bbl | $77.50/bbl BofA, May 2026 | ▲ Revised Higher |
| Brent crude 2026 avg (Fitch) | n/a | $87/bbl Fitch, June 2026 | ▲ Higher · assumes Hormuz reopens end of July |
EIA projects Brent crude averaging approximately $106/bbl for Q2 2026 before easing to $89/bbl in Q4 as Hormuz disruptions abate (EIA STEO, May 2026). BofA identifies an extreme upside scenario of $130/bbl if disruptions persist into H2, while Fitch's base case of $87/bbl for the year assumes a late-July Strait reopening. Both forecasters acknowledge high uncertainty. For freight budgeting, $4.80/gal annual diesel is now the structural reference point; bids and contracts built on pre-blockade assumptions will generate repricing pressure within the term.
Top Corridor Spotlight · Peak Produce + Post-Roadcheck
June activates the full peak produce season, with reefer demand from western growing regions and Southeast outbound pulls intensifying simultaneously. The post-Roadcheck window historically tightens rates on long-haul lanes as operators who parked equipment during Blitz Week return on different dispatch schedules, and 2026's ELD-focused inspection criteria removed a larger share of drivers from active rotation than prior years.
| Lane | Distance | MoM | YoY | Linehaul YoY | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yakima WA → Chicago IL | 1,954 mi | -3.2% | +15.1% | -6.4% | 95/100 |
| Salinas CA → Chicago IL | 2,253 mi | +1.2% | +31.7% | +16.4% | 72/100 |
| McAllen TX → Detroit MI | 1,698 mi | +1.3% | +36.8% | +26.0% | 69/100 |
| Atlanta GA → Boston MA | 1,129 mi | +11.9% | +66.7% | +64.0% | 75/100 |
Atlanta-to-Boston is the standout lane this month, with the sharpest MoM move in the basket (+11.9%) and a YoY linehaul increase of +64.0% (Greenscreens prediction, June 2, 2026). The Southeast-to-Northeast corridor is absorbing both produce-season outbound pull and post-Roadcheck compliance attrition simultaneously, compressing available capacity on one of the market's highest-velocity lanes. McAllen-to-Detroit continues its multi-month outperformance on a YoY basis (+36.8% all-in, +26.0% linehaul), driven by nearshoring-related freight from Mexico's maquiladora corridor and sustained just-in-time parts demand from automotive OEMs.
Salinas-to-Chicago registered the quietest MoM move in the basket (+1.2%), but the YoY linehaul gap (+16.4%) confirms that structural rate pressure is present even on the market's highest-volume western produce lane. Yakima-to-Chicago is the lone MoM decliner (-3.2%), consistent with softer early-season Pacific Northwest volumes, though the +15.1% YoY reading underscores that the baseline has reset materially higher across all four lanes.
Source: Greenscreens.ai network rate predictions, June 2, 2026. MoM comparison vs. May 5, 2026. YoY comparison vs. June 3, 2025. Linehaul YoY excludes fuel rate component.
Supply Side: Five Forces, Structural Contraction
The supply side of the U.S. truckload market is contracting on multiple fronts. The exits are structural, not cyclical, and they are not reversing on a seasonal schedule.
Post-Roadcheck Enforcement. The 2026 CVSA International Roadcheck, conducted May 12-14 across North America, concentrated inspectors on ELD tampering, falsification, and manipulation as the primary driver-side violation category, alongside cargo securement on the vehicle side. CVSA's April 1, 2026 updated Out-of-Service Criteria elevated ELD tampering violations above traditional false log violations, with willful-violation fines up to $16,000 per occurrence (CVSA 2026 OOS Criteria). For context, the 2025 Roadcheck produced a 5.9% driver out-of-service rate and an 18.1% vehicle out-of-service rate across 56,178 inspections (CVSA 2025). Final 2026 numbers are pending, but initial reporting indicates comparable scope with heavier emphasis on electronic logging compliance.
CDL Enforcement and Driver Pool Contraction. FMCSA's non-domiciled CDL final rule, effective March 16, 2026, restricts CDL issuance and renewal to three narrow visa categories (H-2A, H-2B, and E-2) and requires in-person renewals with unexpired passports and valid entry records. Of approximately 200,000 non-citizen CDL holders nationwide, FMCSA estimates 97% cannot qualify under the new standard (FMCSA, March 2026). New York, the highest-volume state for non-domiciled CDLs, refused to comply and had $73.5M in federal highway funding withheld by U.S. DOT on April 17, 2026. Industry analysts estimate that CDL enforcement combined with ICE workplace and roadside enforcement could remove 105,000 to 175,000 drivers from the active market, roughly 3-5% of the active driver pool (FreightWaves, 2026; Stifel research, January 2026).
ELD Enforcement and Chameleon Carrier Exits. Since January 2025, FMCSA has removed more than 56 ELDs from its registered device list and blocked 280 ELD registrations, forcing equipment upgrades across small-fleet and owner-operator segments (FMCSA newsroom, February 2026). The ELD replacement compliance deadline for most affected devices is July 20, 2026. Operators unable to source compliant replacements will face out-of-service treatment at roadside from that date. The agency's MOTUS modernized registration system applies AI-supported identity verification to flag chameleon carriers, operators that dissolve after enforcement and reopen under new DOT numbers. Industry estimates suggest as many as 30% of trucks were engaging in some form of ELD fraud before the current crackdown began.
Montgomery Ruling and Insurance Repricing. The Supreme Court's 9-0 ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II (No. 24-1238, decided May 14, 2026, opinion by Justice Barrett) now permits state negligent-hiring claims against freight brokers nationwide, settling a four-circuit split over whether the FAAAA preempts such claims. The ruling permanently raises the bar for documented, defensible carrier selection across the industry. Brokers operating without rigorous vetting processes face litigation exposure against a backdrop of average trucking nuclear verdicts of $27.5M and a $36M median (ATRI). Insurance markets are repricing in response: broker E&O, contingent auto, and excess-liability lines are hardening at renewal. SONAR Carrier Net Revocations are running 31% above year-ago levels through H1 2026 (FreightWaves SONAR).
Cargo Theft Adds Sourcing Complexity. Cargo theft and freight fraud remain at record levels, complicating carrier selection and load security protocols. Theft losses rose 27% in 2024 to over $1 billion (NICB Cargo Theft Report 2025), with the NICB projecting another 22% increase for 2025. Average individual theft per load exceeds $202,000 (NICB 2025). Organized criminal rings targeting trucking grew 46% year-over-year to 925 incidents in 2024. Tactics have shifted toward identity fraud, double-brokering schemes, and AI-generated impersonation of dispatchers, making standard load tender practices insufficient for high-value freight.
Capacity Calendar · Next 60 Days
Watch list for the next 60 days. Source: FreightPlus internal capacity calendar.
| Window | Event | Expected Capacity Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 26 · Jun 22-28 | End of Quarter Rush | Shippers push to meet Q2 targets; carrier demand spikes in the final week of the quarter; rate pressure builds on high-volume corridors as freight hits the market simultaneously. |
| Wks 27-28 · Jun 29-Jul 5 | Independence Day | Long weekend compresses dispatch schedules; drivers take home time; post-holiday network reset adds 1-2 days of effective capacity loss in the July 6-7 recovery window. |
| Ongoing through July | Produce Season | Reefer demand surges nationally; equipment competition intensifies in Southeast, Southwest, and West Coast growing regions; dry van and flatbed corridors absorb indirect pressure as reefer draws capacity away from general freight. |
| Jun 1 onward (peak Aug-Oct) | Hurricane Season | Gulf Coast and Southeast corridor vulnerability; storm prep and recovery freight ties up capacity; FEMA and relief operations can displace thousands of trucks from normal commerce with minimal notice. |
| Wk 30+ · Jul 20 onward | Back-to-School Season | Retail, apparel, and school supply demand builds; retail corridors tighten through mid-August; parcel-heavy lanes pressured as consumer fulfillment volumes accelerate. |
| Through August | Construction Season | Flatbed tightens on lumber, steel, and aggregate moves tied to active project season; infrastructure project freight draws equipment away from general freight corridors in the Midwest and Southeast. |
Demand Side: Manufacturing Expanding, Imports Holding
ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 54.0% in May 2026, the highest reading since May 2022 (55.9%), with the New Orders Index at 56.8% and the Production Index at 54.3% (ISM Manufacturing PMI report, June 2026 release). At 54.0%, the PMI maps to approximately 2.2% annualized real GDP growth. Five consecutive months of manufacturing expansion, combined with an elevated Backlog of Orders Index at 52.2%, signal a freight demand pipeline that is building, not receding. The Price Index at 82.1%, while slightly below April's 84.6%, reflects ongoing input cost pressure that manufacturers are absorbing, constraining margin without yet slowing output.
ATA Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.4% in May to 115.4 (2015=100), reversing April softness and confirming that physical freight volumes are rising in step with the manufacturing signal (ATA May 2026). DAT public spot van linehaul averaged $2.32/mile for the week of May 24-30, up $0.05 week-over-week and $0.65 above the year-ago reading (DAT/AJOT, June 2026). The spot-to-contract gap has narrowed to its tightest level since April 2022, a classic leading indicator that a contract repricing cycle is approaching. Import demand remains supported by the nearshoring trend, visible in McAllen-to-Detroit lane activity and reinforced by manufacturing expansion data, as OEMs source more parts from Mexico's maquiladora corridor.
The contract-versus-spot dynamic is approaching an inflection point. The DAT June 2026 contract benchmark of $2.58/mile for dry van reflects a market where spot rates at $2.32/mile linehaul are converging upward toward contract-equivalent levels. Shippers who benefited from the 2023-2025 soft market, where spot rates troughed at $2.28/mile linehaul in July 2025, are now navigating the tail end of that advantage. The combination of structural capacity contraction, post-Roadcheck enforcement, and sustained fuel cost elevation means the effective cost of staying uncontracted is rising faster than the cost of locking coverage at current rates.
Risk Factors
- Hormuz Extended. If the Strait of Hormuz closure extends beyond Fitch's late-July assumption, diesel holds above $5.50/gal through Q3, sustaining TL FSC at $0.73+/mi and compressing carrier margins further.
- Enforcement Acceleration. Additional ICE workplace audits, FMCSA registration culls, and ELD replacement failures post-July 20 remove capacity faster than current models assume, amplifying the tightening already underway.
- Hurricane Disruption. A Gulf or Southeast landfall during peak season ties up capacity in disaster freight, removing trucks from normal commerce at the market's highest-demand point with no lead time.
- PMI-Driven Demand Surge. May's 54.0% PMI and 56.8% New Orders Index create conditions for a Q3 freight demand surge that outpaces the shrinking carrier base, pushing spot rates sharply higher on high-velocity corridors.
- Hormuz Reopens Early. An early resolution before late July accelerates the diesel pullback Fitch projects, reducing FSC burden and carrier operating costs faster than the market expects, softening rates on fuel-sensitive corridors.
- Consumer Demand Softens. Tariff-related import substitution or consumer spending compression delays the manufacturing expansion visible in the May PMI, reducing freight demand through Q3 and leaving contracted capacity partially stranded.
- ELD Enforcement Eased. If FMCSA extends ELD replacement deadlines or enforcement tolerances loosen through litigation or political pressure, sidelined operators return to active dispatch faster than anticipated, relieving capacity pressure.
- Contract Repricing Overshoot. Shippers lock new contracts reflecting current tightness; if timing is early and conditions ease faster than expected, over-commitment on coverage generates rate disputes before the term expires.
FreightPlus Position
Fuel passthrough. The FreightPlus fuel surcharge program resets weekly to the EIA national diesel average, applying the TL FSC schedule directly to each load. At $5.350/gallon diesel and a $0.70/mile TL FSC (FreightPlus FSC Schedule), the per-load fuel cost burden above the pre-blockade baseline is $150 over a 600-mile lane. FreightPlus passes through actual fuel cost to its carrier network at the contracted rate, full and transparent. EIA projects 2026 annual average diesel at $4.80/gallon; freight budgets built on pre-blockade assumptions need to be reset to that number, not the November 2025 baseline of $3.50/gallon.
Spot rates. The spot market has recovered from its 2025 trough and is converging toward contract rates. The spot-to-contract gap is at its tightest since April 2022 (DAT/AJOT, June 2026). Shippers relying on spot TL as their primary procurement strategy are now competing for capacity in a shrinking pool, paying rates trending toward contract-equivalent levels without the service reliability, carrier relationship depth, or rate ceiling that contracted coverage provides. The current window, before enforcement-driven capacity contraction accelerates through ELD deadlines and CDL exits, is the lower-risk entry point for building contract coverage at rates that still reflect today's conditions rather than the tighter market ahead.
Capacity strategy through summer. The regulatory forces reshaping carrier capacity are structural. Exits through non-domiciled CDL enforcement, Roadcheck out-of-service orders, and ELD replacement non-compliance do not reverse on a seasonal cycle. The compliant carrier base, operators running verified credentials, certified ELDs, and documented safety files, gains pricing leverage as the field narrows. Sourcing aggressively in the compliant segment now, before the broader market adjusts to post-Montgomery carrier vetting requirements, positions a freight program for service continuity through a tightening market rather than chasing capacity at the margin when summer peak demand hits.
Contract bid timing. Shippers approaching Q3 or Q4 contract negotiations should model the new cost floor, not the 2025 baseline. EIA projects 2026 diesel at $4.80/gallon average with Q2 at $5.61/gallon (EIA STEO, April 7, 2026). Fitch forecasts relief arriving in late summer if Hormuz reopens on schedule, but $4.80/gallon annual average diesel is now the structural reference point for 2026. Bids built on pre-blockade assumptions will be under-priced relative to carrier costs and will generate re-rate requests or service quality problems within the contract term. The Montgomery ruling adds a permanent compliance cost layer that the carrier market will price into its rate expectations regardless of fuel direction.
Bottom Line
The June 2026 freight market is operating at a permanently higher cost floor. Diesel at $5.350/gallon (EIA week ending 06/01/2026) is $1.453/gallon above the pre-Strait of Hormuz blockade baseline, pinning TL FSC at $0.70/mile and delivering $150 per load in added cost over a standard 600-mile lane. The Fitch base-case of a late-July Strait reopening, if it holds, would begin the path toward lower diesel in Q4. But EIA projects a full-year 2026 average of $4.80/gallon, and that number reflects the entire blockade impact on the calendar year. Fuel is not returning to $3.90/gallon in 2026.
Capacity is contracting on multiple fronts, and the exits will not reverse quickly. Post-Roadcheck enforcement attrition, the FMCSA non-domiciled CDL final rule restricting 97% of 200,000 CDL holders from renewal, ELD replacement deadlines arriving July 20, and SONAR Net Revocations running 31% above year-ago levels confirm that the supply side is thinning. The Supreme Court's unanimous ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II on May 14 adds permanent compliance cost pressure to the broker-carrier ecosystem, accelerating the exit of under-resourced operators who cannot absorb the vetting, documentation, and insurance burden. The compliant carrier segment is the new pricing winner.
Demand is growing into a shrinking capacity base. ISM Manufacturing PMI at 54.0%, the highest since May 2022, and ATA Tonnage up 2.4% in May confirm the freight demand pipeline is building. The spot-to-contract gap is at April 2022 levels. The three things to remember heading into summer: fuel is elevated and staying there through at least Q3, enforcement is removing supply that will not come back, and demand is accelerating into the gap. Contract strategy and carrier vetting quality are the two variables shippers can still control.